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Forecasting the Number of Road Accidents in Poland by Road Type

Piotr Gorzelańczyk 1,* and Jen Sim Ho 2
Stanislaw Staszic State University of Applied Sciences in Pila, Podchorazych 10 Street, 64-920 Pila, Poland
Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research, Lot 125-135, Jalan TKS1, Taman Kajang Sentral, 43000 Kajang, Selangor, Malaysia
For correspondence.
Academic Editor:
Highlights of Vehicles, 2024, 2(1), 13–23.
Received: 6 October 2023    Accepted: 9 February 2024    Published: 23 February 2024
On Polish highways, a staggering number of individuals pass away each year. The quantity is still quite large even if the value is declining year after year. The value of traffic accidents has greatly decreased due to the epidemic, but it is still quite high. In order to reduce this number, it is required to identify the roads where the majority of accidents occur and to understand the predicted number of accidents in the upcoming years. The article’s goal is to predict how many accidents will occur on Polish roads based on the kind of roads. To achieve this, monthly accident data for Poland from the Police’s statistics for the years 2007–2021 were analyzed, and a prediction for the years 2022–2024 was created. As is evident, either the number of accidents is rising or it is stabilizing. This is mostly caused by the rise in automobile traffic. Additionally, predictions indicate that given the existing circumstances, a significant rise in the number of accidents on Polish roads may be anticipated. This is especially evident in the nation’s growing number of freeways. It should be remembered that the current epidemic distorts the findings. Selected time series models were used in the investigation in Statistica.
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Copyright © 2024 Gorzelańczyk and Ho. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use and distribution provided that the original work is properly cited.
This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
Cite this Article
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